Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
